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Monday 15 June 2015 – Modeling of Seismicity: A. Statistical Problems and Solutions – Part 1

08:40am Some thoughts on the estimation of maximum and corner magnitude 0840_taroni.pdf
Matteo Taroni, Warner Marzocchi, Jeremy D. Zechar
09:00am Statistical tests for the tail of the seismic-moment distribution of global shallow earthquakes 0900_serra.pdf
Isabel Serra, Álvaro Corral
09:20am Mmax 0920_holschneider.pdf
Matthias Holschneider, Gert Zoeller
09:40am Self-similar aftershock rates 0940_davidsen.pdf
Joern Davidsen

Monday 15 June 2015 – Modeling of Seismicity: A. Statistical Problems and Solutions – Part 2

10:30am A simple model for earthquake statistics compared to observations and experiments 1030_dahmen.pptx
Karin A. Dahmen, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Braden Brinkman, Thomas Goebel, Michael LeBlanc, Danijel Schorlemmer, Jonathan Uhl
10:50am Condensation of earthquake location catalogs and implications for earthquake triggering models 1050_kamer.ppt
Yavor Kamer, Guy Ouillon, Didier Sornette, Jochen Woessner
11:10am Statistical Properties of Marsan-Lengline Estimates of Triggering Functions for Space-time Marked Point Processes 1110_fox.pdf
Eric Fox, Rick Paik Schoenberg, Joshua Gordon
11:30am Full nonparametric estimate of space-time ETAS model 1130_adelfio.pdf
Giada Adelfio, Marcello Chiodi
11:50am Spatial distribution of aftershocks as a hallmark for different stress regimes 1150_lippiello.pdf
Eugenio Lippiello, Ferdinando Giacco, Cataldo Godano, Warner Marzocchi, Lucilla de Arcangelis

Monday 15 June 2015 – Modeling of Seismicity: B. Applications – Part 1

02:00pm Empirical Estimation of Fault Directionality for Improved Non-parametric Estimation of Branching Models for Earthquake Occurrences 0200_gordon.pdf
Joshua Gordon
02:20pm Predicting changing rates of swarm activity by volumetric strain changes not available
Takao Kumazawa, Yosihiko Ogata, Kazuhiro Kimura, Kenji Maeda, Akio Kobayashi
02:40pm Insights on stress-drop magnitude-dependency and source-variability from the analysis of accelerometric data and non-ergodic GMPEs 0240_cotton.pdf
Fabrice Cotton, Boumediène Derras, Stephane Drouet, Christian Molkenthin

Monday 15 June 2015 – Modeling of Seismicity: B. Applications – Part 2

05:00pm Detecting spatial variations of earthquake clustering parameters via maximum weighted likelihoods estimates 0500_zhuang.pptx
Jiancang Zhuang
05:20pm Short-term foreshocks and their predictive value 0520_papadopoulos.ppt
Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Markos Avlonitis, Boris Di Fiore, George Minadakis
05:40pm Hidden Markov Modeling of Sparse Time Series from Non-volcanic Tremor observations not available
Ting Wang, Jiancang Zhuang, Kazushige Obara, Hiroshi Tsuruoka

Monday 15 June 2015 – Poster session

A comment on Saichev and Sornette (2005, PRE), Ogata and Zhuang (2006, PRE) and Vere-Jones and Zhuang (2008, PRE): Three modes of the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model poster_luo.pptx
Jiawen Luo
Accelerometric data analysis and frictional Properties Variations of the Subduction Interface in Northern Chile not available
Jesus Piña, Fabrice Cotton, Anne Socquet
Aggregated seismicity time series: Is there clear evidence of precursory patterns? poster_adamaki.pdf
Angeliki Adamaki, Roland Roberts, IMO SIL Monitoring Group
An improved ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggerring poster_guo.pdf
Yicun Guo, Jiancang Zhuang, Shiyong Zhou
Analogue earthquakes: A test bed for physical and statistical models? poster_rudolf.pdf
Michael Rudolf, Matthias Rosenau, Karen Leever, Onno Onken
Anisotropic kernels for the estimation of space-time ETAS models poster_adelfio.pdf
Giada Adelfio, Marcello Chiodi, Orietta Nicolis
Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy poster_passarelli.pdf
Luigi Passarelli, Sebastian Hainzl, Simone Cesca, Francesco Maccaferri, Marco Mucciarelli, Dirk Roessler, Fabio Corbi, Torsten Dahm, Eleonora Rivalta
Bigger aftershocks happen farther away: non-separability of magnitude and spatial distributions of aftershocks not available
Nicholas van der Elst, Bruce Shaw
Changes in seismicity and stress loading on subduction faults in the Kanto region, Japan, 2011 - 2014 not available
Blandine Marie Gardonio, David Marsan, Olivier Lengliné, Bogdan Enescu, Michel Bouchon, Jean-Luc Got
Characteristic of Upper Mantle Anisotropy Beneath Sunda Banda Transition Zone not available
Samsul Hadi Wiyono, Andri Dian Nugraha
Combining rate-based earthquake forecasting models with precursory information and with non-normalized models poster_shebalin.pdf
Peter Shebalin, Clement Narteau, Jeremy Zechar
Confidence Intervals for the Magnitude of the Largest Aftershock poster_shcherbakov.pdf
Robert Shcherbakov
Data-driven spatial b-value estimation with applications to California seismicity: To b or not to b not available
Yavor Kamer, Stefan Hiemer
Development of a Bayesian method to estimate a fault slip distribution of a large earthquake from the spatial aftershock distribution and rate- and state friction law: inclusion of information on magnitude as a prior distribution not available
Takaki Iwata
Does the Spatial Analysis of 2012 Ahar-Varzeghan (Northwestern Iran) Seismic Sequence Corroborate the Tectonic Interpretations? poster_yazdi.pdf
Pouye Yazdi, Miguel Ángel Santoyo García-Galiano
Efficient identification of fault and auxiliary planes from focal mechanisms using EM-based cluster analysis not available
Sebastian Specht, Fabrice Cotton
Energy release, source parameters and fault plan solution of July 18 and 22, 2014 Gulf of Suez earthquakes not available
Abdelaziz Khairy, Gad-Elkareem Mohamed, Ahmed Badawy
Fault-Zone Maturity Defines Maximum Earthquake Magnitude not available
Marco Bohnhoff, Fatih Bulut, Eva Stierle, Patricia Martinez-Garzon, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Identifying stages in the aftershock generation process by inter-event times analysis not available
F. Ramón Zúñiga, Angel Figueroa-Soto, Víctor Hugo Márquez, Marisol Monterrubio
Kinematic Study of Pisagua Earthquake 2014 - Northern Chile: Analysis of the Frequency Content and its Impact on the Understanding of the Seismogenic Zone not available
Jorge Jara, Jesus Pina-Valdes, Anne Socquet, Fabrice Cotton, Javier Ruiz, Andrea Walpersdorf, Nathalie Cotte
Long-term effects of rifting-induced stress changes on the earthquake statistics in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (North Iceland) poster_allahbakhshi.pdf
Masoud Allahbakhshi, Luigi Passarelli, Francesco Maccaferri, Eleonora Rivalta
Near-source ground motion observations of large earthquakes are inconsistent with concept of deterministic rupture propagation not available
Men-Andrin Meier, Tom Heaton, John Clinton
Nucleation, propagation and arrest of transient slip in seismic swarms in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (North Iceland) not available
Eleonora Rivalta, Luigi Passarelli, Francesco Maccaferri, Sigurjon Jonsson
On the focal mechanism distributions of background seismicity and triggered seismicity in the Japan region not available
Minzhen Wang, Jiancang Zhuang
Parametric and Non-Parametric Procedures for Estimating Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Provinces of Iran not available
Mona Salamat, Mehdi Zare
Relationship between aftershock parameters and physical properties of the crust poster_zakharova.pdf
Olga Zakharova, Sebastian Hainzl, Bogdan Enescu
Relationship between changes in rate of background earthquakes and slow slip in Boso, Japan not available
Thomas Reverso, David Marsan, Agnès Helmstetter
Significant Relative Quiescence along the western end part of Kuril subduction zone more than 5 years poster_matsuura.pdf
Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura
Spatial-Temporal Analysis of b-value in M6.3 Southwest Iran Earthquake of 09 April 2013, as an earthquake precursor not available
Zari Bordbar, Mohammad Reza Hatami
Spatio-temporal behavior on simulated aftershock sequences using the Fiber Bundle Model not available
Marisol Monterrubio, Ramon Zuñiga, Victor Hugo Marquez, Angel Figueroa-Soto
Spatiotemporal variation of b-value in Molucca Collision Zone using high precision relocated hypocenters poster_shiddiqi.pdf
Hasbi Ash Shiddiqi, Sri Widiyantoro, Andri Dian Nugraha, Mohamad Ramdhan, Wandono Wandono, Sutiyono Sutiyono, Titi Handayani
Static stress triggering explains the empirical aftershock distance decay poster_hainzl.pdf
Sebastian Hainzl, Javad Moradpour, Jörn Davidsen
Systematic assessment of the static stress-triggering hypothesis using inter-earthquake time statistics not available
Shyam Nandan, Guy Ouillon, Jochen Wössner, Didier Sornette, Stefan Wiemer
The national Spanish earthquake catalogue: Magnitude of completeness, location precision, and mine blasts poster_gonzalez.pdf
Álvaro González
The role of small earthquakes in modeling foreshock occurrence with ETAS poster_seif.pdf
Stefanie Seif, Arnaud Mignan, Jeremy Zechar, Stefan Wiemer
The spatial and temporal variation of the b-value in Southwest of China not available
Shiyong Zhou, Shenjian Zhang
Rate-and-State California Earthquake Forecasts: Resolving Stress Singularities poster_strader.pdf
Anne Strader, David D. Jackson

Tuesday 16 June 2015 – Physics of Earthquakes on Different Scales – Part 1

08:30am Slow slip transients and large earthquakes not available
Aitaro Kato
08:50am Quantitative evaluation of slip balance between co- and inter- seismic phase 0850_wang.pdf
Lifeng Wang
09:30am Applying Statistical Seismology to Image the Physical Properties of the Crust 0930_hauksson.pptx
Egill Hauksson
09:50am What is characteristic about a characteristic earthquake? Implications from multi-scale studies of the relative earthquake size distribution 0950_wiemer.ppt
Stefan Wiemer, Thessa Tormann

Tuesday 16 June 2015 – Physics of Earthquakes on Different Scales – Part 2

11:00am Exploring aftershock properties with depth 1100_shebalin.pdf
Peter Shebalin, Clement Narteau
11:20am Deterministic Model of Earthquake Clustering Shows Reduced Stress Drops for Nearby Aftershocks 1120_shaw.pdf
Bruce Edward Shaw, Keith Richards Dinger, James H Dieterich
11:40am Varibility in aftershock productivity, and its relationship with stress drop 1140_marsan.pdf
David Marsan, Agnès Helmstetter

Tuesday 16 June 2015 – Understanding and Quantifying Induced Seismicity – Part 1

02:00pm Earthquake scaling laws for the 2000 dike at Miyakejima (Japan) and relation to stress changes and focal mechanisms 0200_rivalta.pdf
Eleonora Rivalta, Luigi Passarelli, Simone Cesca, Yosuke Aoki
02:20pm Seismological characterization of micro- and macrofracturing processes in a fault zone: A comparison of laboratory stick-slip friction experiments and close-by monitoring of Mw1.9 fault in a deep South African gold mine 0220_kwiatek.pptx
Grzegorz Kwiatek, Katrin Plenkers, Thomas Goebel, Georg Dresen
02:40pm Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the Anthropocene: Induced Seismicity in the Central and Eastern US not available
Andrea L. Llenos, Justin L. Rubinstein, William L. Ellsworth, Charles S. Mueller, Andrew J. Michael, Arthur McGarr, Mark D. Petersen, Matthew Weingarten, Austin A. Holland
03:00pm A Ground Motion Discriminant for Injection-Induced Earthquakes not available
Susan E. Hough

Tuesday 16 June 2015 – Understanding and Quantifying Induced Seismicity – Part 2

03:50pm Induced Aftershock Sequences and Swarms in Geothermal Systems 0350_shcherbakov.pdf
Robert Shcherbakov, Donald L. Turcotte, M. Burak Yikilmaz, Louise H. Kellogg, John B. Rundle
04:10pm Seismogenic Index, Bounds of Magnitude Probability and Triggered versus Induced Earthquakes 0410_shapiro.pdf
Serge A. Shapiro, Oliver Krüger O., Carsten Dinske C, Cornelius Langenbruch
04:30pm Examples of induced/triggered seismicity in Italy: state of the art and perspectives 0430_braun.pdf
Thomas Braun, Buttinelli Mauro, Caciagli Marco, Improta Luigi, Piccinini Davide, Saccorotti Gilberto, Scrocca Davide
04:50pm Performance evaluation of models to forecast fluid-induced seismicity 0450_catalli.ppt
Flaminia Catalli, Sebastian Hainzl, Torsten Dahm

Wednesday 17 June 2015 – New Perspectives in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting and Testing – Part 1

08:30am Anomalous hiatus of California paleo-earthquakes? 0830_jackson.pdf
David Diether Jackson
08:50am Adaptive smoothing of seismicity in time, space and magnitude for long-term and short-term earthquake forecasts 0850_helmstetter.pdf
Agnès Helmstetter, Maximilian Werner
09:10am On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models 0910_marzocchi.pdf
Warner Marzocchi, Daniele Melini
09:30am Reviews on the pre- and post-seismicity of the Tohoku-Oki mega-earthquake, and future long-term forecasts 0930_ogata.pdf
Yosihiko Ogata
09:50am Toward automatic aftershock forecasting in Japan 0950_omi.pdf
Takahiro Omi, Yosihiko Ogata, Katsuhiko Shiomi, Bogdan Enescu, Kaoru Sawazaki, Kazuyuki Aihara

Wednesday 17 June 2015 – New Perspectives in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting and Testing – Part 2

10:40am Global Earthquake Forecast 1040_kagan.pptx
Yan Y. Kagan
11:00am Correlation-based evaluation for earthquake forecast 1100_yamashina.pdf
Ken'ichiro Yamashina, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Tetsuto Himeno
11:20am Testing by hybridisation - a practical approach to testing earthquake forecasting models 1120_rhoades.pptx
David A. Rhoades, Annemarie Christophersen, Matthew C. Gerstenberger
11:40am Operational Earthquake Forecasting in New Zealand: Advances and challenges 1140_christophersen.pptx
Annemarie Christophersen, David A. Rhoades, David Harte, Matthew C. Gerstenberger

Wednesday 17 June 2015 – New Perspectives in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting and Testing – Part 3

02:00pm Retrospective Evaluation of Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecast Models during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence 0200_werner.pdf
Maximilian Werner, Matthew Gerstenberger, Maria Liukis, Warner Marzocchi, David Rhoades, Matteo Taroni, Jeremy Zechar, Camilla Cattania, Annemarie Christophersen, Sebastian Hainzl, Agnes Helmstetter, Abigail Jimenez, Sandy Steacy, Thomas Jordan
02:20pm Five-year Japanese earthquake predictability experiment with multiple runs since 2009 including the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake 0220_hirata.pptx
Naoshi Hirata, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Danijel Schorlemmer
02:40pm UCERF3-ETAS: Including Spatiotemporal Clustering for a California Operational Earthquake Forecast 0240_field.pdf
Edward H. Field, other WGCEP participants

Wednesday 17 June 2015 – New Perspectives in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting and Testing – Part 4

05:20pm Comparing USGS NSHMs with DYFI observations 0520_mak.pdf
Sum Mak, Danijel Schorlemmer
05:40pm How much spatio-temporal clustering should one build into a risk model? 0540_fitzenz.pdf
Delphine Fitzenz

Wednesday 17 June 2015 – Poster session

A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts and deterministic eartquake predictions not available
J. Douglas Zechar, Marc Rierola, Jiancang Zhuang
A Potential Promising Approach to Extract Ionospheric Anomaly Related to Earthquake from DEMETER Satellite Data not available
Yongxian Zhang, Caiyun Xia, Turson Nilupar, Xiaotao Zhang, Yongjia Wu
Aftershock Statistics of Injection-Induced Earthquakes in the Central U.S. not available
Morgan Page, Susan Hough
Applying clustering model and Gutenberg-Richter's Law to Forecast Large Aftershocks poster_baranov.pdf
Peter Shebalin, Sergey Baranov
Communicating time-varying seismic risk during an earthquake sequence poster_herrmann.pdf
Marcus Herrmann, J. Douglas Zechar, Stefan Wiemer
Computationally Efficient Earthquake Detection with Continuous Seismic Waveform Data poster_yoon.pdf
Clara Yoon, Ossian O'Reilly, Karianne Bergen, Gregory Beroza
Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) approach on modeling anomalous (pore-pressure?) diffusion in the 2001 Agios Ioanis (West Corinth rift) earthquake swarm sequence not available
Georgios Michas, Filippos Vallianatos, Peter Sammonds
CSEP-based Test Bench for Assessing Induced Seismicity Models not available
Eszter Kiraly, J. Douglas Zechar, Valentin Gischig, Dimitrios Karvounis, Joseph Doetsch, Stefan Wiemer
Development of Seismicity Analysis software: TSEIS – ETAS module implementation not available
Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Yoshihiko Ogata
Ensemble Model Earthquake Forecasts during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence not available
Matteo Taroni, Warner Marzocchi, Maximilian Werner, Jeremy D. Zechar
Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment – FISHA Application to the seismicity catalogue generated by a discrete element hydromechanical model poster_hakimhashemi.pdf
Amir Hossein Hakimhashemi, Jeoung Seok Yoon, Arno Zang, Oliver Heidbach, Gottfried Grünthal
Improvement of aftershock models based on Coulomb stress interactions and rate-state dependent friction poster_cattania.pdf
Camilla Cattania, Sebastian Hainzl, Lifeng Wang, Frank Roth, Bogdan Enescu
Insights from applying a statistical medium-term forecast model to physics based synthetic catalogues not available
Annemarie Christophersen, David A. Rhoades, Harmony V. Colella
Italian and Japanese Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs): Accounting for epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modeling poster_roselli.pdf
Pamela Roselli, Warner Marzocchi, Licia Faenza
Lessons from the establishment of the Operational Earthquake Forecast System in Italy not available
Anna Maria Lombardi
Modelling of induced seismicity and frequency-magnitude relation in multi-stage hydraulic stimulation of crystalline geothermal reservoir poster_yoonjs.pdf
Jeoung Seok Yoon, Arno Zang, Günter Zimmermann, Ove Stephansson
Multivariate Poisson hidden Markov Models: The case study of the North Aegean Sea, Western Greece not available
Katerina Orfanogiannaki, Dimitris Karlis, Gerassimos Papadopoulos
Identifying stages in the aftershock generation process by inter-event times analysis not available
F. Ramón Zúñiga, Angel Figueroa-Soto, Víctor Hugo Márquez, Marisol Monterrubio
Kinematic Study of Pisagua Earthquake 2014 - Northern Chile: Analysis of the Frequency Content and its Impact on the Understanding of the Seismogenic Zone not available
Jorge Jara, Jesus Pina-Valdes, Anne Socquet, Fabrice Cotton, Javier Ruiz, Andrea Walpersdorf, Nathalie Cotte
Long-term effects of rifting-induced stress changes on the earthquake statistics in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (North Iceland) not available
Masoud Allahbakhshi, Luigi Passarelli, Francesco Maccaferri, Eleonora Rivalta
On the convolution of stochastic processes for modelling strong earthquake occurrences: a multi-rupture model driven by a self-correcting model poster_rotondi.pdf
Renata Rotondi, Elisa Varini
Optimal short-term earthquake forecasts based on ULF seismo-magnetic data not available
Peng Han, Katsumi Hattori, Jiancang Zhuang
Probabilistic, non-linear relocation of the 1980-2014 Southern Californian seismicity not available
Yavor Kamer, Guy Ouillon, Edi Kissling, Didier Sornette
Relationship between skewness and kurtosis for characterizing seismic excitations in Corinth Gulf (Greece) poster_mesimeri.pdf
Maria Mesimeri, Vassilios Karakostas, Eleftheria Papadimitriou, George Tsaklidis
Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate poster_falcone.pdf
Giuseppe Falcone, Maura Murru, Rodolfo Console, Warner Marzocchi, Jiancang Zhuang
Seismic Hazard Assessment in Corinth Gulf (Greece) via a Moment Release Model poster_mangira.pdf
Ourania Mangira, Georgios Tsaklidis, Eleftheria Papadimitriou, Irene Votsi
Seismic Parameters Variations for Iran and Its Vicinity not available
Mona Salamat, Mehdi Zare
Seismicity properties revealed by stochastic means: Application in Corinth Gulf and Mygdonia Basin (Greece) seismic zones poster_gkarlaouni.pdf
Charikleia Gkarlaouni, Stanislaw Lasocki, Eleftheria Papadimitriou
Seismicity simulation in Ordos region of China based on the fault interactions and hazard assessment not available
Xin Jin, Shiyong Zhou
Short-term earthquake risk assessment considering time-dependent b-values poster_gulia.pdf
Laura Gulia, Thessa Tormann, Stefan Wiemer, Marcus Herrmann
Spatial Analysis of Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Distribution at Geothermal Region in the South of Bandung, West Java, Indonesia poster_zaky.pdf
Dicky Ahmad Zaky, Andri Dian Nugraha, Mohammad Rachmat Sule, Philippe Jousset
Spatiotemporal variations of faulting regimes and source parameters of induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field poster_garzon.pdf
Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Grzegorz Kwiatek, Hiroki Sone, Marco Bohnhoff, Georg Dresen, Craig Hartline
Statistical properties of microearthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing not available
Samira Maghsoudi, Jörn Davidsen, David Eaton
The medium-term seismic hazard model for Italy poster_faenza.pdf
Licia Faenza, Warner Marzocchi, Pamela Roselli, Giuseppe Falcone, Matteo Taroni
The simplest probabilistic model for spatial forecasting of earthquake locations not available
Álvaro González
A pattern recognition algorithm for early characterization of seismic clusters in Italy poster_gentili.pdf
Stefania Gentili, Rita Di Giovambattista
Spatial Variation on Earthquake Recurrence Time Distribution in Japan poster_nomura.pdf
Shunichi Nomura