Presentations
Abstracts
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Monday 15 June 2015 – Modeling of Seismicity: A. Statistical Problems and Solutions – Part 1
08:40am | Some thoughts on the estimation of maximum and corner magnitude | 0840_taroni.pdf |
Matteo Taroni, Warner Marzocchi, Jeremy D. Zechar | ||
09:00am | Statistical tests for the tail of the seismic-moment distribution of global shallow earthquakes | 0900_serra.pdf |
Isabel Serra, Álvaro Corral | ||
09:20am | Mmax | 0920_holschneider.pdf |
Matthias Holschneider, Gert Zoeller | ||
09:40am | Self-similar aftershock rates | 0940_davidsen.pdf |
Joern Davidsen |
Monday 15 June 2015 – Modeling of Seismicity: A. Statistical Problems and Solutions – Part 2
10:30am | A simple model for earthquake statistics compared to observations and experiments | 1030_dahmen.pptx |
Karin A. Dahmen, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Braden Brinkman, Thomas Goebel, Michael LeBlanc, Danijel Schorlemmer, Jonathan Uhl | ||
10:50am | Condensation of earthquake location catalogs and implications for earthquake triggering models | 1050_kamer.ppt |
Yavor Kamer, Guy Ouillon, Didier Sornette, Jochen Woessner | ||
11:10am | Statistical Properties of Marsan-Lengline Estimates of Triggering Functions for Space-time Marked Point Processes | 1110_fox.pdf |
Eric Fox, Rick Paik Schoenberg, Joshua Gordon | ||
11:30am | Full nonparametric estimate of space-time ETAS model | 1130_adelfio.pdf |
Giada Adelfio, Marcello Chiodi | ||
11:50am | Spatial distribution of aftershocks as a hallmark for different stress regimes | 1150_lippiello.pdf |
Eugenio Lippiello, Ferdinando Giacco, Cataldo Godano, Warner Marzocchi, Lucilla de Arcangelis |
Monday 15 June 2015 – Modeling of Seismicity: B. Applications – Part 1
02:00pm | Empirical Estimation of Fault Directionality for Improved Non-parametric Estimation of Branching Models for Earthquake Occurrences | 0200_gordon.pdf |
Joshua Gordon | ||
02:20pm | Predicting changing rates of swarm activity by volumetric strain changes | not available |
Takao Kumazawa, Yosihiko Ogata, Kazuhiro Kimura, Kenji Maeda, Akio Kobayashi | ||
02:40pm | Insights on stress-drop magnitude-dependency and source-variability from the analysis of accelerometric data and non-ergodic GMPEs | 0240_cotton.pdf |
Fabrice Cotton, Boumediène Derras, Stephane Drouet, Christian Molkenthin |
Monday 15 June 2015 – Modeling of Seismicity: B. Applications – Part 2
05:00pm | Detecting spatial variations of earthquake clustering parameters via maximum weighted likelihoods estimates | 0500_zhuang.pptx |
Jiancang Zhuang | ||
05:20pm | Short-term foreshocks and their predictive value | 0520_papadopoulos.ppt |
Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Markos Avlonitis, Boris Di Fiore, George Minadakis | ||
05:40pm | Hidden Markov Modeling of Sparse Time Series from Non-volcanic Tremor observations | not available |
Ting Wang, Jiancang Zhuang, Kazushige Obara, Hiroshi Tsuruoka |
Monday 15 June 2015 – Poster session
A comment on Saichev and Sornette (2005, PRE), Ogata and Zhuang (2006, PRE) and Vere-Jones and Zhuang (2008, PRE): Three modes of the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model | poster_luo.pptx |
Jiawen Luo | |
Accelerometric data analysis and frictional Properties Variations of the Subduction Interface in Northern Chile | not available |
Jesus Piña, Fabrice Cotton, Anne Socquet | |
Aggregated seismicity time series: Is there clear evidence of precursory patterns? | poster_adamaki.pdf |
Angeliki Adamaki, Roland Roberts, IMO SIL Monitoring Group | |
An improved ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggerring | poster_guo.pdf |
Yicun Guo, Jiancang Zhuang, Shiyong Zhou | |
Analogue earthquakes: A test bed for physical and statistical models? | poster_rudolf.pdf |
Michael Rudolf, Matthias Rosenau, Karen Leever, Onno Onken | |
Anisotropic kernels for the estimation of space-time ETAS models | poster_adelfio.pdf |
Giada Adelfio, Marcello Chiodi, Orietta Nicolis | |
Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy | poster_passarelli.pdf |
Luigi Passarelli, Sebastian Hainzl, Simone Cesca, Francesco Maccaferri, Marco Mucciarelli, Dirk Roessler, Fabio Corbi, Torsten Dahm, Eleonora Rivalta | |
Bigger aftershocks happen farther away: non-separability of magnitude and spatial distributions of aftershocks | not available |
Nicholas van der Elst, Bruce Shaw | |
Changes in seismicity and stress loading on subduction faults in the Kanto region, Japan, 2011 - 2014 | not available |
Blandine Marie Gardonio, David Marsan, Olivier Lengliné, Bogdan Enescu, Michel Bouchon, Jean-Luc Got | |
Characteristic of Upper Mantle Anisotropy Beneath Sunda Banda Transition Zone | not available |
Samsul Hadi Wiyono, Andri Dian Nugraha | |
Combining rate-based earthquake forecasting models with precursory information and with non-normalized models | poster_shebalin.pdf |
Peter Shebalin, Clement Narteau, Jeremy Zechar | |
Confidence Intervals for the Magnitude of the Largest Aftershock | poster_shcherbakov.pdf |
Robert Shcherbakov | |
Data-driven spatial b-value estimation with applications to California seismicity: To b or not to b | not available |
Yavor Kamer, Stefan Hiemer | |
Development of a Bayesian method to estimate a fault slip distribution of a large earthquake from the spatial aftershock distribution and rate- and state friction law: inclusion of information on magnitude as a prior distribution | not available |
Takaki Iwata | |
Does the Spatial Analysis of 2012 Ahar-Varzeghan (Northwestern Iran) Seismic Sequence Corroborate the Tectonic Interpretations? | poster_yazdi.pdf |
Pouye Yazdi, Miguel Ángel Santoyo García-Galiano | |
Efficient identification of fault and auxiliary planes from focal mechanisms using EM-based cluster analysis | not available |
Sebastian Specht, Fabrice Cotton | |
Energy release, source parameters and fault plan solution of July 18 and 22, 2014 Gulf of Suez earthquakes | not available |
Abdelaziz Khairy, Gad-Elkareem Mohamed, Ahmed Badawy | |
Fault-Zone Maturity Defines Maximum Earthquake Magnitude | not available |
Marco Bohnhoff, Fatih Bulut, Eva Stierle, Patricia Martinez-Garzon, Yehuda Ben-Zion | |
Identifying stages in the aftershock generation process by inter-event times analysis | not available |
F. Ramón Zúñiga, Angel Figueroa-Soto, Víctor Hugo Márquez, Marisol Monterrubio | |
Kinematic Study of Pisagua Earthquake 2014 - Northern Chile: Analysis of the Frequency Content and its Impact on the Understanding of the Seismogenic Zone | not available |
Jorge Jara, Jesus Pina-Valdes, Anne Socquet, Fabrice Cotton, Javier Ruiz, Andrea Walpersdorf, Nathalie Cotte | |
Long-term effects of rifting-induced stress changes on the earthquake statistics in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (North Iceland) | poster_allahbakhshi.pdf |
Masoud Allahbakhshi, Luigi Passarelli, Francesco Maccaferri, Eleonora Rivalta | |
Near-source ground motion observations of large earthquakes are inconsistent with concept of deterministic rupture propagation | not available |
Men-Andrin Meier, Tom Heaton, John Clinton | |
Nucleation, propagation and arrest of transient slip in seismic swarms in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (North Iceland) | not available |
Eleonora Rivalta, Luigi Passarelli, Francesco Maccaferri, Sigurjon Jonsson | |
On the focal mechanism distributions of background seismicity and triggered seismicity in the Japan region | not available |
Minzhen Wang, Jiancang Zhuang | |
Parametric and Non-Parametric Procedures for Estimating Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Provinces of Iran | not available |
Mona Salamat, Mehdi Zare | |
Relationship between aftershock parameters and physical properties of the crust | poster_zakharova.pdf |
Olga Zakharova, Sebastian Hainzl, Bogdan Enescu | |
Relationship between changes in rate of background earthquakes and slow slip in Boso, Japan | not available |
Thomas Reverso, David Marsan, Agnès Helmstetter | |
Significant Relative Quiescence along the western end part of Kuril subduction zone more than 5 years | poster_matsuura.pdf |
Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura | |
Spatial-Temporal Analysis of b-value in M6.3 Southwest Iran Earthquake of 09 April 2013, as an earthquake precursor | not available |
Zari Bordbar, Mohammad Reza Hatami | |
Spatio-temporal behavior on simulated aftershock sequences using the Fiber Bundle Model | not available |
Marisol Monterrubio, Ramon Zuñiga, Victor Hugo Marquez, Angel Figueroa-Soto | |
Spatiotemporal variation of b-value in Molucca Collision Zone using high precision relocated hypocenters | poster_shiddiqi.pdf |
Hasbi Ash Shiddiqi, Sri Widiyantoro, Andri Dian Nugraha, Mohamad Ramdhan, Wandono Wandono, Sutiyono Sutiyono, Titi Handayani | |
Static stress triggering explains the empirical aftershock distance decay | poster_hainzl.pdf |
Sebastian Hainzl, Javad Moradpour, Jörn Davidsen | |
Systematic assessment of the static stress-triggering hypothesis using inter-earthquake time statistics | not available |
Shyam Nandan, Guy Ouillon, Jochen Wössner, Didier Sornette, Stefan Wiemer | |
The national Spanish earthquake catalogue: Magnitude of completeness, location precision, and mine blasts | poster_gonzalez.pdf |
Álvaro González | |
The role of small earthquakes in modeling foreshock occurrence with ETAS | poster_seif.pdf |
Stefanie Seif, Arnaud Mignan, Jeremy Zechar, Stefan Wiemer | |
The spatial and temporal variation of the b-value in Southwest of China | not available |
Shiyong Zhou, Shenjian Zhang | |
Rate-and-State California Earthquake Forecasts: Resolving Stress Singularities | poster_strader.pdf |
Anne Strader, David D. Jackson |
Tuesday 16 June 2015 – Physics of Earthquakes on Different Scales – Part 1
08:30am | Slow slip transients and large earthquakes | not available |
Aitaro Kato | ||
08:50am | Quantitative evaluation of slip balance between co- and inter- seismic phase | 0850_wang.pdf |
Lifeng Wang | ||
09:30am | Applying Statistical Seismology to Image the Physical Properties of the Crust | 0930_hauksson.pptx |
Egill Hauksson | ||
09:50am | What is characteristic about a characteristic earthquake? Implications from multi-scale studies of the relative earthquake size distribution | 0950_wiemer.ppt |
Stefan Wiemer, Thessa Tormann |
Tuesday 16 June 2015 – Physics of Earthquakes on Different Scales – Part 2
11:00am | Exploring aftershock properties with depth | 1100_shebalin.pdf |
Peter Shebalin, Clement Narteau | ||
11:20am | Deterministic Model of Earthquake Clustering Shows Reduced Stress Drops for Nearby Aftershocks | 1120_shaw.pdf |
Bruce Edward Shaw, Keith Richards Dinger, James H Dieterich | ||
11:40am | Varibility in aftershock productivity, and its relationship with stress drop | 1140_marsan.pdf |
David Marsan, Agnès Helmstetter |
Tuesday 16 June 2015 – Understanding and Quantifying Induced Seismicity – Part 1
02:00pm | Earthquake scaling laws for the 2000 dike at Miyakejima (Japan) and relation to stress changes and focal mechanisms | 0200_rivalta.pdf |
Eleonora Rivalta, Luigi Passarelli, Simone Cesca, Yosuke Aoki | ||
02:20pm | Seismological characterization of micro- and macrofracturing processes in a fault zone: A comparison of laboratory stick-slip friction experiments and close-by monitoring of Mw1.9 fault in a deep South African gold mine | 0220_kwiatek.pptx |
Grzegorz Kwiatek, Katrin Plenkers, Thomas Goebel, Georg Dresen | ||
02:40pm | Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the Anthropocene: Induced Seismicity in the Central and Eastern US | not available |
Andrea L. Llenos, Justin L. Rubinstein, William L. Ellsworth, Charles S. Mueller, Andrew J. Michael, Arthur McGarr, Mark D. Petersen, Matthew Weingarten, Austin A. Holland | ||
03:00pm | A Ground Motion Discriminant for Injection-Induced Earthquakes | not available |
Susan E. Hough |
Tuesday 16 June 2015 – Understanding and Quantifying Induced Seismicity – Part 2
03:50pm | Induced Aftershock Sequences and Swarms in Geothermal Systems | 0350_shcherbakov.pdf |
Robert Shcherbakov, Donald L. Turcotte, M. Burak Yikilmaz, Louise H. Kellogg, John B. Rundle | ||
04:10pm | Seismogenic Index, Bounds of Magnitude Probability and Triggered versus Induced Earthquakes | 0410_shapiro.pdf |
Serge A. Shapiro, Oliver Krüger O., Carsten Dinske C, Cornelius Langenbruch | ||
04:30pm | Examples of induced/triggered seismicity in Italy: state of the art and perspectives | 0430_braun.pdf |
Thomas Braun, Buttinelli Mauro, Caciagli Marco, Improta Luigi, Piccinini Davide, Saccorotti Gilberto, Scrocca Davide | ||
04:50pm | Performance evaluation of models to forecast fluid-induced seismicity | 0450_catalli.ppt |
Flaminia Catalli, Sebastian Hainzl, Torsten Dahm |
Wednesday 17 June 2015 – New Perspectives in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting and Testing – Part 1
08:30am | Anomalous hiatus of California paleo-earthquakes? | 0830_jackson.pdf |
David Diether Jackson | ||
08:50am | Adaptive smoothing of seismicity in time, space and magnitude for long-term and short-term earthquake forecasts | 0850_helmstetter.pdf |
Agnès Helmstetter, Maximilian Werner | ||
09:10am | On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models | 0910_marzocchi.pdf |
Warner Marzocchi, Daniele Melini | ||
09:30am | Reviews on the pre- and post-seismicity of the Tohoku-Oki mega-earthquake, and future long-term forecasts | 0930_ogata.pdf |
Yosihiko Ogata | ||
09:50am | Toward automatic aftershock forecasting in Japan | 0950_omi.pdf |
Takahiro Omi, Yosihiko Ogata, Katsuhiko Shiomi, Bogdan Enescu, Kaoru Sawazaki, Kazuyuki Aihara |
Wednesday 17 June 2015 – New Perspectives in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting and Testing – Part 2
10:40am | Global Earthquake Forecast | 1040_kagan.pptx |
Yan Y. Kagan | ||
11:00am | Correlation-based evaluation for earthquake forecast | 1100_yamashina.pdf |
Ken'ichiro Yamashina, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Tetsuto Himeno | ||
11:20am | Testing by hybridisation - a practical approach to testing earthquake forecasting models | 1120_rhoades.pptx |
David A. Rhoades, Annemarie Christophersen, Matthew C. Gerstenberger | ||
11:40am | Operational Earthquake Forecasting in New Zealand: Advances and challenges | 1140_christophersen.pptx |
Annemarie Christophersen, David A. Rhoades, David Harte, Matthew C. Gerstenberger |
Wednesday 17 June 2015 – New Perspectives in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting and Testing – Part 3
02:00pm | Retrospective Evaluation of Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecast Models during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence | 0200_werner.pdf |
Maximilian Werner, Matthew Gerstenberger, Maria Liukis, Warner Marzocchi, David Rhoades, Matteo Taroni, Jeremy Zechar, Camilla Cattania, Annemarie Christophersen, Sebastian Hainzl, Agnes Helmstetter, Abigail Jimenez, Sandy Steacy, Thomas Jordan | ||
02:20pm | Five-year Japanese earthquake predictability experiment with multiple runs since 2009 including the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake | 0220_hirata.pptx |
Naoshi Hirata, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Danijel Schorlemmer | ||
02:40pm | UCERF3-ETAS: Including Spatiotemporal Clustering for a California Operational Earthquake Forecast | 0240_field.pdf |
Edward H. Field, other WGCEP participants |
Wednesday 17 June 2015 – New Perspectives in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting and Testing – Part 4
05:20pm | Comparing USGS NSHMs with DYFI observations | 0520_mak.pdf |
Sum Mak, Danijel Schorlemmer | ||
05:40pm | How much spatio-temporal clustering should one build into a risk model? | 0540_fitzenz.pdf |
Delphine Fitzenz |
Wednesday 17 June 2015 – Poster session
A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts and deterministic eartquake predictions | not available |
J. Douglas Zechar, Marc Rierola, Jiancang Zhuang | |
A Potential Promising Approach to Extract Ionospheric Anomaly Related to Earthquake from DEMETER Satellite Data | not available |
Yongxian Zhang, Caiyun Xia, Turson Nilupar, Xiaotao Zhang, Yongjia Wu | |
Aftershock Statistics of Injection-Induced Earthquakes in the Central U.S. | not available |
Morgan Page, Susan Hough | |
Applying clustering model and Gutenberg-Richter's Law to Forecast Large Aftershocks | poster_baranov.pdf |
Peter Shebalin, Sergey Baranov | |
Communicating time-varying seismic risk during an earthquake sequence | poster_herrmann.pdf |
Marcus Herrmann, J. Douglas Zechar, Stefan Wiemer | |
Computationally Efficient Earthquake Detection with Continuous Seismic Waveform Data | poster_yoon.pdf |
Clara Yoon, Ossian O'Reilly, Karianne Bergen, Gregory Beroza | |
Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) approach on modeling anomalous (pore-pressure?) diffusion in the 2001 Agios Ioanis (West Corinth rift) earthquake swarm sequence | not available |
Georgios Michas, Filippos Vallianatos, Peter Sammonds | |
CSEP-based Test Bench for Assessing Induced Seismicity Models | not available |
Eszter Kiraly, J. Douglas Zechar, Valentin Gischig, Dimitrios Karvounis, Joseph Doetsch, Stefan Wiemer | |
Development of Seismicity Analysis software: TSEIS – ETAS module implementation | not available |
Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Yoshihiko Ogata | |
Ensemble Model Earthquake Forecasts during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence | not available |
Matteo Taroni, Warner Marzocchi, Maximilian Werner, Jeremy D. Zechar | |
Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment – FISHA Application to the seismicity catalogue generated by a discrete element hydromechanical model | poster_hakimhashemi.pdf |
Amir Hossein Hakimhashemi, Jeoung Seok Yoon, Arno Zang, Oliver Heidbach, Gottfried Grünthal | |
Improvement of aftershock models based on Coulomb stress interactions and rate-state dependent friction | poster_cattania.pdf |
Camilla Cattania, Sebastian Hainzl, Lifeng Wang, Frank Roth, Bogdan Enescu | |
Insights from applying a statistical medium-term forecast model to physics based synthetic catalogues | not available |
Annemarie Christophersen, David A. Rhoades, Harmony V. Colella | |
Italian and Japanese Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs): Accounting for epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modeling | poster_roselli.pdf |
Pamela Roselli, Warner Marzocchi, Licia Faenza | |
Lessons from the establishment of the Operational Earthquake Forecast System in Italy | not available |
Anna Maria Lombardi | |
Modelling of induced seismicity and frequency-magnitude relation in multi-stage hydraulic stimulation of crystalline geothermal reservoir | poster_yoonjs.pdf |
Jeoung Seok Yoon, Arno Zang, Günter Zimmermann, Ove Stephansson | |
Multivariate Poisson hidden Markov Models: The case study of the North Aegean Sea, Western Greece | not available |
Katerina Orfanogiannaki, Dimitris Karlis, Gerassimos Papadopoulos | |
Identifying stages in the aftershock generation process by inter-event times analysis | not available |
F. Ramón Zúñiga, Angel Figueroa-Soto, Víctor Hugo Márquez, Marisol Monterrubio | |
Kinematic Study of Pisagua Earthquake 2014 - Northern Chile: Analysis of the Frequency Content and its Impact on the Understanding of the Seismogenic Zone | not available |
Jorge Jara, Jesus Pina-Valdes, Anne Socquet, Fabrice Cotton, Javier Ruiz, Andrea Walpersdorf, Nathalie Cotte | |
Long-term effects of rifting-induced stress changes on the earthquake statistics in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (North Iceland) | not available |
Masoud Allahbakhshi, Luigi Passarelli, Francesco Maccaferri, Eleonora Rivalta | |
On the convolution of stochastic processes for modelling strong earthquake occurrences: a multi-rupture model driven by a self-correcting model | poster_rotondi.pdf |
Renata Rotondi, Elisa Varini | |
Optimal short-term earthquake forecasts based on ULF seismo-magnetic data | not available |
Peng Han, Katsumi Hattori, Jiancang Zhuang | |
Probabilistic, non-linear relocation of the 1980-2014 Southern Californian seismicity | not available |
Yavor Kamer, Guy Ouillon, Edi Kissling, Didier Sornette | |
Relationship between skewness and kurtosis for characterizing seismic excitations in Corinth Gulf (Greece) | poster_mesimeri.pdf |
Maria Mesimeri, Vassilios Karakostas, Eleftheria Papadimitriou, George Tsaklidis | |
Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate | poster_falcone.pdf |
Giuseppe Falcone, Maura Murru, Rodolfo Console, Warner Marzocchi, Jiancang Zhuang | |
Seismic Hazard Assessment in Corinth Gulf (Greece) via a Moment Release Model | poster_mangira.pdf |
Ourania Mangira, Georgios Tsaklidis, Eleftheria Papadimitriou, Irene Votsi | |
Seismic Parameters Variations for Iran and Its Vicinity | not available |
Mona Salamat, Mehdi Zare | |
Seismicity properties revealed by stochastic means: Application in Corinth Gulf and Mygdonia Basin (Greece) seismic zones | poster_gkarlaouni.pdf |
Charikleia Gkarlaouni, Stanislaw Lasocki, Eleftheria Papadimitriou | |
Seismicity simulation in Ordos region of China based on the fault interactions and hazard assessment | not available |
Xin Jin, Shiyong Zhou | |
Short-term earthquake risk assessment considering time-dependent b-values | poster_gulia.pdf |
Laura Gulia, Thessa Tormann, Stefan Wiemer, Marcus Herrmann | |
Spatial Analysis of Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Distribution at Geothermal Region in the South of Bandung, West Java, Indonesia | poster_zaky.pdf |
Dicky Ahmad Zaky, Andri Dian Nugraha, Mohammad Rachmat Sule, Philippe Jousset | |
Spatiotemporal variations of faulting regimes and source parameters of induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field | poster_garzon.pdf |
Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Grzegorz Kwiatek, Hiroki Sone, Marco Bohnhoff, Georg Dresen, Craig Hartline | |
Statistical properties of microearthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing | not available |
Samira Maghsoudi, Jörn Davidsen, David Eaton | |
The medium-term seismic hazard model for Italy | poster_faenza.pdf |
Licia Faenza, Warner Marzocchi, Pamela Roselli, Giuseppe Falcone, Matteo Taroni | |
The simplest probabilistic model for spatial forecasting of earthquake locations | not available |
Álvaro González | |
A pattern recognition algorithm for early characterization of seismic clusters in Italy | poster_gentili.pdf |
Stefania Gentili, Rita Di Giovambattista | |
Spatial Variation on Earthquake Recurrence Time Distribution in Japan | poster_nomura.pdf |
Shunichi Nomura |